Article written

  • on 07.04.2010
  • at 02:54 PM
  • by Jason

Mortgage Rate Roller Coaster, Treasury 10 Year Notes Find Demand 0

Looks like rising mortgage interest rates  might be delayed as I stated before. Treasury auction today shows demand is still there for 10 Year Notes which are one of the key plays tied into what mortgage rates look. Found this good article below and wanted to share with you guys. The key now is to watch the Treasury note schedule of when the auctions are for the 10 year notes and see how demand will be for the notes. If the auctions do not find demand then rates will rise, just not sure how high. Right now the mortgage interest rates are mainly speculation on the demand and this will cause a roller coaster ride. Hope you find this helpful :)

Treasury Auction Finds Strong Demand For 10-Year Notes

Published: Wednesday, 7 Apr 2010 | 1:10 PM ET

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com http://www.cnbc.com/id/36220519

Investors showed surprisingly strong appetite for long-dated Treasurys in a Wednesday auction that saw high demand and lower-than-expected yield.

After a series of auctions two weeks ago that indicated that the market was tiring of the government’s infusion of notes into the market, a sale of $21 billion in 10-year notes fetched a yield of 3.90, a bit beneath the when-issued rate but clearly indicative that the psychologically important yield level of 4 percent was a resistance level.

Demand was 3.72 times the amount of money auctioned, well above the normal bid-to-cover ratio of 2.87.

Foreign demand, as measured through the indirect bid outside of the Treasury, came in at a healthy 43 percent, while direct bidding came in at 16 percent. Nearly all the bidding—99.62 percent—was at the high yield.

Prices for US Treasurys headed higher after the auction after being mixed before the auction.

The benchmark 10-year gained 13/32 in price to yield 3.898 percent, while the 30-year bond also rallied, gaining 27/32 to yield 4.78 percent, down from 4.83 percent Tuesday.

  • The catalyst for the strong results appeared to come from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes released Tuesday that suggested the central bank had little desire to move interest rates up soon.

With inflation seemingly tame and economic growth likely to remain incremental, investors find appeal in safe government securities likely to hold their value.

“We’ve gotten a pretty improved technical outlook after the 4 percent level held earlier this week,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis for Action Economics in San Francisco. “The notes really had cheapened up quite a bit along curve and against other issues like German bunds.”

Indeed, there reportedly was a spate of buying just ahead of the auction results that pushed up prices and drove down yields.

The solid result could bode well for the last of the auctions this week, a $13 billion sale of 30-year bonds on Thursday.

“It’s hard to say anything’s automatic these days, but we can be fairly sanguine about tomorrow’s auction,” Rupert said.

In addition to the Fed minutes, investors also have been encouraged by continued prospects for economic growth, mostly recently reflected in the Institute for Supply Management’s measure of nonmanufacturing activity, which was surprisingly strong in March.

Continued uncertainty about the sovereign debt crisis in Greece also is spiking interest in more-secure US debt

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